Topic: Investment

Where are we now?

I feel the above sketch by Carl Richards explains what we do for clients and what they can do for themselves at the beginning of our relationship so that we can work out where they are today.

When it comes to money, what we don’t know can hurt us. I’ve seen this truth play out time and again when people tell me that they want to take their finances seriously by investing and making plans for the future.

“Excellent,” I’ll say. “So, what can you tell me about your current finances?” Occasionally I have a client who is fully aware of what they have, but the most common response is a blank stare.

I’m not surprised.  Sometimes we just don’t want to know.  As soon as we start listing our current assets and liabilities, we come face to face with both our good and bad financial decisions.

Maybe we’ve done a great job of saving money every month, but we’ve also had a credit card balance for over a year. We need to know both the good and the bad. Otherwise, we can’t plan for the future. Getting a handle on our current reality starts with something simple: a personal balance sheet.

To start, grab a piece of blank paper. Draw a line down the middle. Write “Assets” on the left, “Liabilities” on the right. Then, make a list.

Assets are anything we own. Liabilities are any debts we owe. On the asset side, list things like savings accounts, ISA’s, Pensions and the value of a home. On the liabilities side, list things like credit card debt, a mortgage balance, and any other loans. For this process to work, we need exact numbers, especially for our liabilities. Be prepared to call credit card companies and banks if needed to get this information. Again, not knowing these numbers can hurt us.

Of course, the personal balance sheet may also reveal we’re better off than we think. That’s a good thing. We may have saved more and have less debt that we assumed. Once we have all the numbers, add them up. Then, subtract all the liabilities from the assets. This number equals our net worth and our current reality. This process seems simple enough.

The next step is however a little more complex. It needs discussion and some analysis. The “how do you get there?”; that all important middle step is where the advisor with a wealth of experience can help. However, if we keep avoiding or skipping this first step, we’ll have a difficult time figuring out where we want to go, let alone how to get there!

So if you’d like help understanding where you are now, or working out how you get to where you want to be, please do contact us.

 

Financial freedom- Creating and maintaining the right investment strategy

Our life is an endless series of daily choices, and how we manage those choices determines the outcome of our life. We all want financial freedom, but how will we achieve it? Financial goal-setting is the key to building wealth.

There are always going to be bumps in the road on every journey, which is why it’s essential to be flexible enough to adjust your plans when the unexpected happens. Your wealth creation objectives need to be able to adapt to whatever’s going on in your life. Nothing should stand between you and your long-term goals.

Creating and maintaining the right investment strategy plays a vital role in helping to secure your financial future. Whether you are looking to invest for income, growth or both, we can provide you with professional expert advice to help you achieve your financial goals. So what do you need to consider?

Set a goal and start early

Short term, ultra-specific goals are generally very easy to achieve as they don’t really involve any planning, but longer-term goals on the other hand require you to actually plan out how you are going to achieve the goal. Remember that wealth creation is about creating a lifestyle of your choosing, and the earlier you start to invest, the sooner you can enjoy the benefits of compound growth working for you to build value and make your money work harder for you.

By taking the time to step into your future, you can look back and visualise what needs to happen today for you to enjoy the lifestyle you want tomorrow. Ask yourself these three questions to help you visualise your future needs: what do I have? What do I want? When do I want it?

Develop an investment habit

If you think that investing a few hundred pounds every month will offer little in return, you should change your mindset. To start your investment strategy, you should adopt a stable and organised investment routine that will help you achieve your goals. Compound growth is the central pillar of investing. It is why investing works so well over the long term.

The more you invest and the earlier you start will mean your investments have that much more time and potential to grow. By investing early and staying invested, you’ll also be able to take advantage of compound earnings. Making money on your money is the concept behind compounding. Compounding is when the money you earn from your investments is reinvested for the opportunity to earn even more. However, you need to keep in mind that while compounding can make an impact over many years, there may be periods where your money won’t grow.

Be consistent

Many people stop their investment planning particularly during market downturns, as we’ve seen in recent weeks. By doing this, they often miss out on opportunities to invest at lower prices. If you keep to your investment strategy and keep moving ahead consistently, this helps spread risk and enables you to grow your wealth for the long term through pound-cost averaging and careful asset allocation.

It’s important to remember that investing is an ongoing process, not a one-time activity. The right way to begin your investment strategy is by establishing goals that need to be achieved over the short, medium and long term. Secondly, it is necessary to assess your current position in the financial lifecycle. Thirdly, you must ascertain your risk profile, as that decides how much risk you should take while investing. This is particularly important as different financial objectives require different investments approaches.

Maintain a well-diversified portfolio with regular reviews

Regular reviews of your portfolio enable you to adjust your portfolio to meet your changing needs and risk appetite at different stages of your life and in different market conditions. This helps you keep up your investing momentum towards achieving your long-term financial goals. It’s also important not to put all your investment eggs into one basket.

Investing randomly into different asset classes without ascertaining their asset allocation, not following a disciplined approach to investing, exiting abruptly from an asset class and investing without a clear time horizon are some of the most apparent inconsistencies in any investment process.

Create the right investment strategy

We recognise that choosing how to invest your money can seem daunting. When it comes to planning for your future and that of your family, you’ll want to be sure that you have everything covered. We help our clients set goals and then create the right investment strategy to achieve them, whether it’s growing family wealth or leaving a legacy. We know everyone is unique and has different priorities. To discuss your future dreams, please contact us.

 

 

The above information is provided for information only. It does not constitute investment advice, recommendation or an offer of any services and is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision.

Avoiding hidden dangers in retirement

Make sure you don’t run out of money or face a reduced standard of living

Increasingly, more and more pensioners are keeping the bulk of their pension fund invested after they retire. This means they’re faced with two very different risks when deciding what to do with their savings in retirement in a world of ‘pension freedoms’. Since April 2015, people who reach retirement have had much greater flexibility over how they use their funds to pay for their later years.

A recent report [1] identified that many savers in retirement are either taking ‘too little’ risk (the ‘risk averse’ retiree) or taking ‘the wrong sort’ of risk (the ‘reckless’ retiree). Each of these approaches increases the danger of a saver either running out of money during their retirement or having to face a reduced standard of living.

The risk-averse retiree – how can you take too little risk?

An example of taking ‘too little’ risk is the saver who takes their tax-free cash at retirement and invests the rest in an ultra-low-risk investment such as a Cash ISA, believing this to be the safe approach. The report points out that ‘investing in retirement is still long-term investing’ and shows that decades of low-return saving can seriously damage the living standards of retirees.

It highlights the case of someone who retired ten years ago with an illustrative pension pot of £100,000 which they invested in cash. Assuming they withdrew money at £7,500 per year (in line with annuity rates at the time), they would now be down to £27,000 and likely to run out in around four years’ time, less than fifteen years into retirement. By contrast, if the same money had been invested in just UK shares, there would still be around £48,000 left in the pot, despite the 2008 stock market, and market volatility.

The reckless retiree – what is ‘the wrong sort’ of risk?

In an era of low interest rates, some retired people may be tempted to seek out more unusual forms of investment with apparently high rates of return but accompanied by much greater risk to their capital. Examples could include peer-to-peer lending, investment in aircraft leasing or even crypto currencies such as bitcoin.

Concentrated exposure to a single, potentially volatile investment can produce very poor outcomes, particularly if bad returns come early in retirement.

The rational retiree – what is the best way to handle risk in retirement?

Rather than invest in an ultra-low-risk way or chase individual high-risk investments, the report identifies a ‘third way’ of spreading risk across a range of assets, including company shares, bonds and property, both at home and abroad. This multi-asset approach can be expected to provide better returns over retirement than cautious investing in cash but also helps to smooth the ups and downs of individual investments.

The pension freedoms introduced in 2015 opened new possibilities for people in retirement, but they created new dangers as well. There is the danger of being too cautious and not making your money work hard enough – investing in retirement is still long-term investing. There is also the danger of taking the wrong sort of risk, seeking high returns but putting your capital at risk. Spreading money across a range of asset classes and in different markets at home and abroad is likely to deliver better returns in retirement – and a more sustainable income – than remaining in cash, without exposing you to the capital risks that can come from chasing after more exotic or risky types of investment.

Help to ensure your expectations are fulfilled

By understanding your retirement plans, we can help ensure your expectations are fulfilled by establishing tailored plans to preserve your capital, produce income and pass on wealth securely and efficiently. If you would like to review your current planning provision, please contact us – we look forward to hearing from you.

 

Source data

[1] Research report published 13 January 2018 by mutual insurer Royal London

Warnings

  •  The article above is provided for information only. It does not constitute advice, a personal recommendation or an offer of any services and is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make a decision.
  • These investments do not include the same security of capital which is afforded with a deposit account.  You may get back less than the amount invested.
  • The value of investments and income from them may go down.   You may not get back the original amount you invested
  • Assessing pension benefits early may impact on levels of retirement income and is not suitable for everyone.  You should seek advice to understand your options at retirement

 

Green and Pleasant Investing

There is a growing interest among clients in the concept of green and socially responsible investment. This has led to an increase in money managed under responsible investment strategies of 25% between 2014-16 according to the 2016 Global Sustainable Investment Review.

As individuals we can all express our views around sustainability via the ballot box; as investors we can express our preferences through participation in the global capital markets.

The main issue is how this can be done without compromising the desired investment outcomes. How can portfolios reduce their investments carbon footprint, ensure investments are not being made into companies associated with undesirable issues like arms tobacco child labour etc and still have a diversified portfolio proving the desired long-term returns?

There is a challenge in achieving the dual goal of sustainability and social consideration are met while building investment solutions aimed at growing wealth for the future.

For clients who request this type of investment, Carpenter Rees often incorporate a sustainable fund from Dimensional Fund Advisers into their portfolio’s.  The Dimensional solution to sustainable investment is to first focus on concentrating on the sources that generate high returns for clients while minimising costs. This is a philosophy that sits across all our model portfolios.

From this base, Dimensional then evaluate companies on a broad array of sustainability measures (such as carbon emissions, land use, toxic waste and water management). That means looking at companies across the whole portfolio and within individual sectors and ensuring that the worst offenders, based on a low sustainability score, are removed altogether. Those that are left are over weighted or under weighted based on how well their score ranks on a set of key sustainability criteria. This process ensures that diversification can be maintained while encouraging good behaviour.

The outcome from research shows that this enables a dramatic reduction in investment into Companies not addressing carbon emissions whilst maintaining diversification and ensuring the focus remains on the drivers of investment return.

In the socially responsible area of factory farming, cluster munitions, tobacco, and child labour there are clearer factors which excludes them. Companies deriving a significant proportion of their income from these areas or from gambling tobacco, or any of the other non-socially sustainable activities can be excluded altogether.

The two functions of return and sustainability need not be incompatible concepts. There is a systematic process to ensure diversification and targeting the sources of higher expected investment returns to ensure a green and pleasant investment portfolio.

 

Warning: The above information is provided for information only. It does not constitute investment advice, recommendation or an offer of any services and is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision.

What is Normal?

The sketch above from Carl Richards reminds us of the fact that the calm serene rise of markets year on year does not exist.

Carl explains his sketch as follows: –

“Imagine being in a boat in the ocean on a very still day. No wind. No swell. The water is as flat as a mirror. The calm goes on for a just long enough for you start to feel like it’s normal. Then when a small wave comes, it feels huge, and regular waves feel enormous. As scary as it might feel…remember waves are normal. Occasional storms are normal. And the last thing you want to do when you get into one is abandon ship.”

I know I am probably going over similar ground to last weeks blog but it is important to remember Volatility is the price you pay for participation in equity markets and for the potential for higher returns than cash.

As always, we are bound to see the media and industry commentators put forward lots of very plausible reasons for this sudden spike in market volatility.  No doubt many will point to fears of rising interest rates due to Trump’s tax cuts ‘turbo-charging’ the economy…however, we should regard this purely as white noise and ‘sit tight’

Market corrections are a normal part of the market cycle and happen from time to time.  It’s nothing to fear, just a part of how equity markets operate.

Our clients with money exposed to global equity markets all share many important attributes:

  1. They are long-term investors.  This attribute makes short-term market volatility less important.  Rather than looking at how an equity market performs during the course of an hour, day, week, month or even year, we’re interested in multi-year investment returns.
  2. We ensure that our clients remain suitably diversified.  This means that equities are not the only element within their investment portfolios.    This diversification is important because different investment types tend to behave differently at different times.    Having a well-diversified portfolio softens the blow of any short-term volatility in equity markets, as you are never fully exposed to UK, US or global stock price movements.
  3. We take careful steps to assess attitude towards investment risk, your risk capacity and your need to take investment risk in order to achieve your financial goals…including determining the degree of short-term falls that can be tolerated in pursuit of longer term gains.

This deep understanding of investment risks means that the volatility we are witnessing should be tolerable in terms of your emotional response to the event and your financial ability to withstand falls within your portfolio.

Despite these three very important attributes, it’s only natural that market volatility prompts some nervousness.

If you’re feeling at all unsettled, we want you to call us and chat about it…. that’s what we are here for.

In fact, as we have said on many occasions, our job as Financial Planners is less challenging during periods of rising markets, it is when markets experience falls that we work harder and really earn our fees by promoting investment discipline, explaining what is happening, and demonstrating how this fits into your overall financial planning.

 

The above information is provided for information only. It does not constitute investment advice, recommendation or an offer of any services and is not intended to provide a sufficient basis on which to make an investment decision.

 

Testing Time in the Markets and Testing Market Timing

The falls in Global markets overnight and this morning emphasise the fact that equity markets do have periods of volatility. Positive periods are followed by negative periods, which are then followed by positive periods. Because of this, it is common when markets are falling to ask whether it is possible to time investment decisions to sell at the peaks and buy back at the troughs.

One way to do this might be to analyse forward-looking information such as economic and corporate data and make predictions about the direction of the markets. But it is hard to make predictions, especially about the future.

Another approach might be to look back at data from previous cycles and identify patterns that could be repeated going forward. Researchers at Dimensional Fund Advisors did exactly this, running almost 800 tests on data from 15 world equity markets to identify signals that might point to a change of market cycle and simulating the trading activity that might improve investment returns.

Most of the 800 tests failed and resulted in worse performance than would have been achieved by just going with the flow of the market. But some of the tests worked and produced positive performance results.

You might think this is good news for investors—that they can replicate the trading patterns suggested by the positive tests. Unfortunately, the number of positive results was no greater than one might expect with such a large number of tests.

As the researchers explain, the odds of one-person coin flipping 10 heads in a row are small. But if you asked 100 people to try, you would expect around five of them to be successful. The same proportion of the 800 market tests were positive and the research was unable to determine if any of them were more than just a sequence of lucky coin tosses.

The conclusion of the research is that, on average, investors are better off sticking to their long-term investment goals and riding out short-term market volatility, rather than trying to time their trading to coincide with the peaks and troughs of the market. This is also the approach we advocate at volatile times such as these.

The main defensive assets within our portfolios are short term, high quality bonds, these bonds are less volatile than long term bonds and their prices will be less effected by any rise in interest rates. High quality bonds tend to be where money flows to at times of equity market trauma and this has indeed been reflected today.

It is easy to become concerned about the present and life as an investor will involve many of these days making life less comfortable unless you view them in context so remember:

  • The value of your portfolio simply tells you how much money you would have if you liquidated everything immediately which you do not intend to do. Losses are only made if you sell assets but if you don’t do this they remain in your portfolio to generate future returns.
  • Your portfolio has a well thought out structure and is designed to provide you with the best chance of a long term favourable return.
  • Some assets will be doing well at times and others not so well and nobody can predict which assets will be doing what at any given time.
  • Your adviser cannot control what markets do and neither can fund managers.

In a nutshell, try not to worry about the short-term impact on your portfolio and instead, focus on your longer term financial plan.

To Bit or not to Bit?

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are receiving intense media coverage, prompting many investors to wonder whether these new types of electronic money deserve a place in their portfolios.

Cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin emerged only in the past decade. Unlike traditional money, no paper notes or metal coins are involved. No central bank issues the currency, and no regulator or nation state stands behind it.

Instead, cryptocurrencies are a form of code made by computers and stored in a digital wallet. In the case of bitcoin, there is a finite supply of 21 million,[1] of which more than 16 million are in circulation.[2] Transactions are recorded on a public ledger called blockchain.

People can earn bitcoins in several ways, including buying them using traditional fiat currencies[3] or by “mining” them—receiving newly created bitcoins for the service of using powerful computers to compile recent transactions into new blocks of the transaction chain through solving a highly complex mathematical puzzle.

For much of the past decade, cryptocurrencies were the preserve of digital enthusiasts and people who believe the age of fiat currencies is coming to an end. This niche appeal is reflected in their market value. For example, at a market value of $16,000 per bitcoin,[4] the total value of bitcoin in circulation is less than one tenth of 1% of the aggregate value of global stocks and bonds. Despite this, the sharp rise in the market value of bitcoins over the past weeks and months have contributed to intense media attention.

What are investors to make of all this media attention? What place, if any, should bitcoin play in a diversified portfolio? Recently, the value of bitcoin has risen sharply, but that is the past. What about its future value?

You can approach these questions in several ways. A good place to begin is by examining the roles that stocks, bonds, and cash play in your portfolio.

EXPECTED RETURNS

Companies often seek external sources of capital to finance projects they believe will generate profits in the future. When a company issues stock,

Legal Entity Identifiers (LEI’s) – Do you need one?

If you hold any form of investment, whether it be stocks, company shares, investment bonds, etc., you may well have heard of a Legal Entity Identifier (LEI) – but what is it, what does it do, and more importantly … do you need one?

In January 2018, the UK will become subject to new legislation brought about by the Markets in Financial Instruments Directive II (MiFID II) regulations.  MiFID first came into force in the UK in November 2007 when its aim was to increase competition and consumer protection in the financial services sector across the European Economic Area (EEA).  However, lessons learned from the ‘financial crisis’ along with the desire to strengthen consumer protection have led to the updating of the regulations.

Transaction Reporting & Unique identifiers

Perhaps one of the biggest changes to be brought about by MiFID II relates to the transaction reporting rules, which are designed to ensure that Investment Firms report post-trade information to the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) to help them to detect and deter market abuse. In addition to this, from the 3rd January 2018, Investment firms must also ensure that prior to trading in any ‘reportable financial instrument’ they hold an appropriate unique identifier.  For individual’s this will be their N.I. number, and for a Legal entity, this will be a Legal Entity Identifier (LEI).

Legal What is a Legal Entity Identifier (LEI)?

Legal Entity Identifier’s (LEI’s) are unique alphanumeric 20-character codes that are used to

Pack up your troubles in your old kit bag and smile, smile, smile…

This week I thought I would share with you a blog written by Tim Hale of Albion Strategic Consulting.  Tim is engaged by Carpenter Rees as a consultant and has helped design and develop the investment strategies we put in place for our clients. Tim is well known  for his investment knowledge and is author of the book Smarter Investing. 

Modern life provides us – some would say swamps us – with so much news, information and punditry, which focuses on the here-and-now, that it is easy to be overwhelmed with the feeling of doom and gloom. The list of things to concern us is long and worrisome; Donald Trump leading the free world, a nuclear-armed North Korea; an increasingly fractious Brexit process and looming cliff-edge, to name a few.

The natural extension of this is to worry about what the impact of all this uncertainty will have on your portfolio and in turn, on your future wealth and expenditure goals. The first mistake is to believe that the world is falling apart around our ears.  It most certainly is not.  The second mistake is to think that the portfolio needs to be repositioned to mitigate these events. There are six key reasons why portfolio tinkering is unlikely to be a sensible course of action.

Reason 1: today’s ‘unprecedented’ turmoil is no different to how it’s always been

Today’s worries dominate our thinking; but can you remember what you were worrying about a year ago, or two years ago? Probably not. It has ever been thus.  Take a look at the chart below. The overwhelming take-away is to acknowledge the relentless upward trajectory of purchasing power for those patient enough, and disciplined enough, to stay the course.

Figure 1: The relentless growth of purchasing power, despite World events

Source: Albion Strategic Consulting[1]

Reason 2: bad news sells – so don’t ignore the underreported good news

We are all aware that bad news sells. For example, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) delivered a ‘gloomy’ forecast for growth of ‘only’ 1.4% for 2018.  Yet, the UK economy is still growing; remember too that this slow down comes after a period of growth that has outstripped much of the developed world – particularly the rest of the EU – for the past few years.  It is not all bad news.

Reason 3: the danger of conflation of ‘what ifs’

The human mind likes stories and in themselves these stories may lead to what appear to be rational outcomes on which some action, or another, could or should be taken. What we often fail to realise is that the seemingly logical outcome is highly unlikely; we have failed to multiply the probabilities of each sequential outcome together.  Think hard about the stories you read and hear.

Reason 4: the futility of futurology

Futurology is the financial markets’ version of astrology. There is a huge industry out there from the IMF and the UK’s Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) to investment banks, academics and BBC reporters all peddling their own view of the future.  These futurologists have one thing in common; they are nearly always wrong in their predictions, and are rarely held to account for their poor forecasts. Take forecasts with a pinch of salt.

Reason 5: the framing of data

As we all know, data is used to score points in support of the data-user’s viewpoint. Be aware that simple statements of fact can be both very influential and misleading.

Reason 6: the news is already in market prices

It is normal to be worried about the potential impact of what is going on in the world and how this will affect markets. The reality is that you are not alone; in fact, all active investors have some view on how Trump, Brexit, Merkel’s problems in Germany, or the Federal Reserve in the US – to name a few – will impact bond and equity prices.  These global, diversified view-points are already reflected in the equilibrium price of securities, agreed freely between buyers and sellers.

Your portfolio is already structured to manage uncertainty

Today’s concerns such as Brexit, Sterling’s weakness, potential tax rises in the event of a Labour government, and Donald Trump in general, are endlessly recycled through the 24/7 media soundbite process, alarming some who are invested in the markets. Well-structured investment portfolios seek to ensure that any market conditions can be weathered in the future, whatever drives these storms.  Your highly diversified portfolio, balancing global equity assets with high-quality shorter-dated bonds, is well positioned to do so.  Try not to worry.  Start by watching the news less.

If you are feeling concerned, please feel free to get in touch to talk further.

 

Other notes and risk warnings

This article is distributed for educational purposes and should not be considered investment advice or an offer of any product for sale. This article contains the opinions of the author but not necessarily the Firm and does not represent a recommendation of any particular security, strategy or investment product. Information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed. 

Past performance is not indicative of future results and no representation is made that the stated results will be replicated.

[1]     Global balanced portfolio: 36% MSCI World Index (net div.), 26% Dimensional Global Targeted Value Index, 40% Citi World Government Bond Index 1-5 Years (hedged to GBP) – no costs deducted, for illustrative purposes only. Data source: Morningstar Direct © All rights reserved, Dimensional Fund Advisers.

Your financial adviser will now take you through the safety procedures

Whilst listening to the safety procedures on a recent flight with friends on our annual Barons golf trip (Incidentally, I won the Barons trophy for the second year running!) it reminded me of the importance of planning clients investments.

Fasten your seat belts

As we hover around market highs for world equity markets and the 10-year anniversary of the crisis at Northern Rock, the media is again stoking up concerns about current market levels. We have had several conversations on this subject recently with clients.

The truth is that at some point the markets will fall. So, if the markets do fall what do you do?

Adopt the brace position

If you have planned your investments correctly, absolutely nothing is the answer. This may not be your natural reaction as you may feel an urge to take control; but what do you do? Do you sell?  if you do decide to sell, what do you sell, when do you sell and where do you invest the proceeds?   You then need to decide when to go back into the market. Getting these decisions right is practically impossible and even the so-called experts can make the wrong calls.

There is no doubt it can be scary, and at such times there is no comfort in reading the newspapers or listening to the news.

The emergency lights will direct you to your closet exit

So, what do you do? Well you stick to the plan that we have worked on with you, which will have built in the possibility of market falls; the scale of which is dependent upon the risk you wish to take with your investments.

When we design your plan, we ensure that you have a level of cash that you feel comfortable to hold and in addition, we ensure that you have cash within your portfolio to cover normally 12 month’s requirements. There will also be a certain amount of short term fixed interest stock within your portfolio, the level of which is again dependent upon the level of risk you wish to take. Most of our clients have 30% or more in these safer investments, so it is important to remember that if the stock market fell by 30% and you have 60% of your investment portfolio invested in equities, then your portfolio value will reduce by around 18%.

Sit back and enjoy the flight

These lower risk investments enable you to leave your long-term portfolio untouched when markets fall enabling you to sit back relax and wait for your portfolio to recover and fall comfortable in the knowledge that you need not stress about making the right calls.